“引洮工程”引发的受水区污染治理研究

[目的]为了解决甘肃中部安定区、陇西县、渭源县、临洮县、榆中县和会宁县的人畜饮水、工业用水、生态用水及农业灌溉用水问题,引洮工程通过九甸峡水利枢纽抬高水位将黄河上游洮河支流水资源引入受水区。在受水区,在调水增加本区供水总量的同时,相应增加了增量水资源使用后带来的废污水,客观上对污染治理工作水平提出了更高要求,轻视排污问题将加剧受水区乃至下游的水系污染程度,影响受水区经济社会的可持续发展。[方法]文章采用文献研究法从理论上探讨了环境容量、排污权及其关系。采用定额计量法计算了调水带来的COD和氨氮增量。[结果]调水使得受水区COD和氨氮每年分别增加6 914. 30t和1 440. 48t。就COD而言,受水区平均排放量占该区环境容量的51. 12%,似有较多的容量结余,但区内排放极不平衡,榆中和会宁已经超排。就氨氮而言,受水区平均排放量将占该区环境容量的151. 55%,总体超排很严重。区内除临洮以外,其余5县区均超排,其中,榆中和会宁超排1倍以上。[结论]排污量是假定增量污水符合二级排放标准的前提下计算的,如果处理率低、排放达标率低,则超排现象会更为严重。对此,要从宏观上进行综合治理,诸如完善政府、社会与市场共同治污机制、排污权配置的过渡性制度安排、污水处理企业改革及引导受水区进行产业结构调整等。     

In the Bear’s Shadow? Russia’s International Image and Its Influence on Investments of Russian Companies in Post-Socialist Europe

The paper examines Russia’s international image and its influence on investment by Russian companies in post-socialist Europe. Findings are based on the cases of Gazprom’s South Stream Pipeline project, and Sberbank’s acquisition of Volksbank’s Central and Eastern European assets in Hungary and Serbia. The paper demonstrates that international positions and economic interests of two countries determinate decisions regarding investments of Russian companies, while Russia’s image to some extent accelerates these decisions in Serbia. The paper is based on the results of interviews with representatives of business communities conducted in Hungary and Serbia in 2012–2017, professional reports, and official documents.     

基于库存理论的铁路始发直达运输产品设计

将库存理论运用到铁路始发直达运输产品设计,能够有效实现运输服务组织成本与库存成本的有机统一。为实现库存成本在铁路始发直达运输中的加载,在考虑周期非完整情况下的库存成本的同时,将铁路运输和库存成本纳入同一目标函数,在装卸车地库存能力约束下,构建基于库存理论的铁路始发直达运输产品设计模型,确定成本最小的铁路始发直达运输产品设计方案。以赤峰地区至山东省煤炭运输网络为例,设计方案有效降低了成本,有助于吸引客户选择铁路运输,以及辅助铁路运营单位研究调整始发直达运输产品方案。     

我国水稻产业供给侧结构性改革的思考

[目的]文章在供给侧改革视角下对水稻供需的结构性矛盾等方面进行梳理,分析基于供给侧改革战略的关键环节、实施路径和未来发展趋势,以期为制定我国水稻供给侧改革战略提供参考。[方法]采用文献分析法和调查研究法,从我国水稻生产供求结构、价格"天花板"和成本"地板"双重挤压、水稻生产的资源环境、市场调节等方面分析了我国水稻产业供给侧的现状和存在的问题;通过日本、泰国、中国五常大米政策特点和经验教训的启示,提出了我国水稻产业供给侧结构性改革的策略。[结果]在分析我国水稻产业供给侧现状的基础上,总结得出水稻产业供给侧改革措施:优化水稻产业空间和功能布局,以项目带动水稻产业结构调整,提高和优化稻米品种品质结构、审定标准向抗性优质专用水稻品种倾斜,因地制宜调减水稻生产面积,调整国家收储稻米标准,延长水稻全产业链等。[结论]加速我国水稻产业供给侧改革,能促进稻米产业结构快速升级,有效破解稻米产业的结构性矛盾,增强我国稻米产业可持续发展能力和国际竞争力。     

Bankruptcy prediction for small- and medium-sized companies using severely imbalanced datasets

Bankruptcy prediction is still important topic receiving notable attention. Information about an imminent bankruptcy threat is a crucial aspect of the decision-making process of managers, financial institutions, and government agencies. In this paper, we utilize a newly acquired dataset comprising financial parameters derived from the annual reports of small- and medium-sized companies. The data, which reveal the true ratio between bankrupt and non-bankrupt companies, are severely imbalanced and only contain a small fraction of bankrupt companies. Our solution to overcome this challenging scenario of imbalanced learning was to adopt three one-class classification methods: a least-squares approach to anomaly detection, an isolation forest, and one-class support vector machines for comparison with conventional support vector machines. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the financial attributes and identify those that are most relevant to bankruptcy prediction. The highest prediction performance in terms of the geometric mean score is 91%. The results are validated on two datasets from the manufacturing and construction industries.     

产业融合发展、农产品供需结构与农业供给侧改革核心探寻

在农产品价格保护制度背景下,不能完成产业融合会限制产业之间的关联效应发挥,导致农产品供需反馈机制瓦解,从而使农产品供需结构出现矛盾。因此,需要对产业融合发展、农产品供需结构以及农业供给侧改革核心进行研究。论文从产业融合发展的必要性、产业融合发展与农产品供需结构之间的形成机理出发进行分析,探讨在新形势下,产业融合发展与农业供给侧改革的选择策略,从而创新我国的农业经营体系,构建完善的农业社会化服务体系,推动我国农业供给侧结构性改革的进一步发展。     

基于快铁融合的上海铁路集装箱快运站选址研究

快铁融合可以充分发挥快递企业和铁路运输的优势,有效提升物流作业效率,达到运输资源分配平衡的效果,是多元化运输的发展方向。在既有和计划建设的铁路货运站中选择铁路集装箱快运站与快递企业集散网络衔接,以快递企业时间满意度和集散运输成本为目标,构建基于时间满意度的铁路集装箱快运站选址模型,以上海铁路集装箱快运站为例进行实证分析,提出保证铁路集装箱快运站与快递企业合理衔接的对策,为铁路集装箱运输融入快递市场提供决策支持,加速快铁融合的实施。     

Inequality and entrepreneurial thresholds

We explore the relationship between inequality and entrepreneurial activity. Drawing on cross-sectional data from a largescale survey of the economic conditions of individuals across India, we develop a number of dimensions of inequality to explore empirically how inequality interacts with entrepreneurship, operationalized as self-employment or as employing other people. We find compelling evidence that there are thresholds to becoming self-employed, and even more so to assembling the combinations of resources and personal attributes required to become an employer. Greater inequality leaves more people unable to make the transition to self-employment, leaving casual laboring as the occupation of necessity. At the same time, inequality increases the number of employers in a society, by concentrating resources - particularly land and finance - enough for significant numbers of people to be able to cross this higher threshold. Lastly, greater differentiation into social or religious groups curtails the ability to cross either entrepreneurial threshold, presumably by limiting the extent and benefits of social networks of value for entrepreneurship.     

基于价值流图析的生产线连续流创建

针对M企业A生产线在制品积压、交付周期长等问题，通过现状价值流图分析其原因，提出在考虑改善效益大于投入成本的条件下，选择合适的自动化水平，以克服物料供应不及时、工艺特性等制约因素。从工艺流程、布局、工装等方面进行改善并绘制未来价值流图，创建生产线连续流。生产线连续流创建后，生产周期缩短了13天、搬运距离减少41m、车间面积节省约168m2、作业人数减少6人，为企业降本增效打下了坚实基础。     

基于供给侧结构性改革的我国农产品供需及收益现状分析

［目的］在我国实施农业供给侧结构改革的大背景下，分析我国主要农产品玉米、大豆、水稻供需及成本收益现状，以把握农业供给侧结构性改革的成效及存在问题，为推进农业供给侧结构性改革及实现农业供需平衡、保证农民受益具有重要意义。［方法］将影响农业经济增长的因素分为市场需求与市场供给两部分，而市场需求包括国内需求和国外需求，市场供给则只指国内供给。分别采集我国玉米、大豆、水稻这3种典型农产品的国内市场需求、国外市场需求和国内市场供给3部分数据，并将市场需求与市场供给数据进行对比，由此分析我国农业供给侧农产品供需现状及存在的问题，指出我国农业供给侧结构性改革发展方向。［结果］（1）我国农产品仍面临着供需不平衡、农民成本收益率低、农产品价格高导致国际市场竞争力低等问题，农业供给侧结构性改革是国家的重大战略，我国通过降低农作物播种面积来降低产能最终实现农产品供需平衡效果微乎其微； （2）我国的农产品产能是相对过剩，并非绝对过剩； （3）我国农产品市场供给一端的要素没有得到有效调节，使农产品生产成本过高，是导致农产品缺少市场竞争力的主要因素。［结论］积极拓宽农产品国外销售市场来增加农产品需求渠道，调节农产品国内市场供给要素，降低农产品生产成本，提高农产品生产质量，增加我国农产品竞争力，是我国通过农业供给侧结构性改革实现农产品供需平衡的必然之路。